In 2018-2019, China's 5G industry is rapidly taking shape with strong policy support. In June 2019, 5G commercial licenses have been officially issued. From a global perspective, current 5G has achieved phased results in terms of technology, standards, industrial ecology, and network deployment. The final link of 5G landing-application scenarios is gradually being realized in all walks of life.
The GGII research and analysis of the 5G base station lithium battery industry, combined with the actual construction of the current 5G base station and future development trends, mainly studies and analyzes the replacement of the 5G new base station (macro base station, micro base station) lithium battery, 4G base station replacement Lithium battery, the use of retired power lithium battery data and overseas import and export data, etc., and give a fusion application timetable.
5G base stations: Statistics show that by the end of 2019, China has 1.74 million new base stations, with a total of more than 8.41 million base stations, of which 4G base stations account for 64.7%, about 5.44 million, and 5G base stations total more than 130,000, except for individual remote Outside the region, the base station has fully covered China's territory. As the coverage rate continues to rise, the construction of the communication network entered a downturn from 2016 to 2018, but with the commercialization of 5G, the communication base station will usher in the peak of construction again.
The frequency of 5G network usage has increased, and the coverage of base stations has become smaller. The number of 5G base stations needs to be 2 to 3 times the number of current 4G base stations. At present, the number of 4G base stations in China's three major telecom operators has exceeded 5 million. Since 5G is crucial for the promotion of economic growth, industrial upgrading, and technological development, 5G network construction has become a national strategy, and provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions, and production and construction corps have all issued green light policies for 5G construction. According to the plan of domestic operators, a 5G network will be built in the pilot cities from 2019 to 2020, and after the commercialization of 5G is launched in 2019, it will enter the macro base station construction and procurement cycle.
Micro base station: 5G communication uses ultra-dense networking technology because of the high frequency. For high-frequency macro base stations: the coverage is too small, which makes the cost too high, coupled with the difficulty of macro base station deployment, site resources are not easy to obtain, Therefore, in 5G networks, high-band resources will no longer use macro base stations, and microcells will become the mainstream, with small base stations as the basic unit for ultra-dense networking and dense deployment of small base stations.
5G needs to achieve greater capacity and uses high-frequency communication, but high-frequency communication has the characteristics of poor diffraction capability, easy loss, and small coverage. Therefore, 5G will require a large number of small base stations to complete deeper and broader coverage to support large-capacity demand, and the number of small base stations is expected to grow in the future.
According to GGII statistics, China's base station lithium battery shipments reached 5.5GWh in 2019, an increase of 71.9% year-on-year. The main increase came from the cascade batteries purchased by the tower, and the increase in the new lithium battery was lower than expected in early 2019. The three major operators postponed bidding for base station lithium batteries.
GGII believes that the industry critical point of the 5G base station lithium battery market is close, and 2020 will be the starting year for the rapid development of China's 5G base station lithium battery industry. Its main driving forces are:
1) In 2020, China will vigorously develop 5G and infrastructure projects. Under the bidirectional driving role, 5G base stations will be an inevitable trend to be vigorously promoted in 2020. As China Mobile opens the bidding for base station lithium batteries, the demand for base stations will be further released , GGII conservatively predicts that the demand for new and renovated 5G base stations in 2020 will reach 10GWh;
2) The progress of new base stations in overseas markets is accelerating. Overseas markets such as Southeast Asia and South Asia are affected by the social environment, and the power grid is less stable than China. The power outage guarantee time required for new ordinary base stations is greatly increased, and the penetration rate of lithium batteries will be Further speed up.
