Survey data shows that in 2019 China's lithium battery cathode material shipments were 404,000 tons, an increase of 32.5% year-on-year.
Among them, the shipment of ternary cathode materials was 192,000 tons, an increase of 40.7% year-on-year; the shipment of lithium iron phosphate materials was 88,000 tons, an increase of 29.3% year-on-year; the shipment of lithium cobalt oxide materials was 66,200 tons; The volume is 57,000 tons.
In 2019, the shipment volume of the power battery market increased by less than 10%, while the growth rate of the cathode material market shipments exceeded 20%. The main reasons for the high market growth are:
1) Power battery terminals, energy storage terminals (including communication energy storage and overseas grid-side energy storage) and some small power (such as forklifts and bicycles) drive the growth of phosphoric acid material shipments;
2) Overseas production of lithium cobalt oxide materials continued to reduce production, and some orders were transferred to China, prompting the increase in domestic production of lithium cobalt oxide materials;
3) The increase in shipments of ternary materials is mainly driven by the growth of domestic power battery terminals and small power (electric tools, bicycles) and other fields. In addition, the growth of shipments of major foreign power battery companies has led to the increase in the export of domestic ternary materials;
4) The increase in shipments of lithium manganese oxide materials was mainly driven by small power and low-capacity digital batteries.
From the perspective of the proportion of cathode material shipments, the ternary cathode material market accounted for 47.6% in 2019, an increase of 2.7 percentage points compared with 2018, and the market share accounted for the largest proportion. The main reasons for the increase in the market share of ternary cathode materials are:
1) The shipment of power batteries in 2019 increased by 9.4% year-on-year, and the increase in shipments of the power battery market directly led to an increase in the market demand for ternary cathode materials;
2) The new energy vehicle subsidy policy in 2019 requires higher energy density and cruising range thresholds, and higher requirements on the energy density of power batteries. Domestic mainstream power battery companies accelerate the production and application of ternary power batteries, such as BYD ’s new listing The use of NCM622 single crystal ternary materials in the car accelerates the number of NCM811 series batteries installed in the Ningde era.
The market has accelerated the increase in shipments in the field of medium and high nickel ternary cathode materials, driving the ternary cathode material market shipments to increase;
3) Small power, electric tools and other fields are gradually leaning towards high-energy density, high-rate or high-speed rechargeable batteries, driving ternary cathode material market shipments.
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Source: High-tech Industrial Research Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), February 2020
From the perspective of the competitive structure of the cathode material market, the TOP10 cathode material enterprises accounted for 56% of the market in 2019, an increase of 3% compared with 2018. The market leading effect is not as significant as the other three key materials.
Xiamen Tungsten Industry has benefited from the double growth of lithium cobalt oxide and ternary materials. In 2019, its cathode material shipments increased by more than 50% year-on-year;
Tianjin Bamo has benefited from the release of production capacity and the increase in end customer demand. Its ternary cathode material shipments have grown significantly, and the total shipment market has risen to second place;
Long-term Lico, Rongbai Lithium and Zhenhua New Materials and other companies benefit from the increased demand for ternary materials in the power battery market, and their market rankings have all increased to varying degrees.
From the perspective of price trends, the overall price of cathode materials in 2019 is showing a downward trend, mainly due to:
1) Lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide and other upstream raw materials, with the release of production capacity and insufficient terminal demand, led to the continued decline in the price of lithium salts, which in turn led to the decline in the market price of lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials;
2) Affected by the transmission of terminal cost-cutting pressure upstream, the cost pressure of the battery industry is passed on upstream, leading to upstream cathode material companies reducing prices for sales.
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Source: High-tech Industrial Research Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), February 2020
With the implementation of the transformation strategy of international automakers, the threshold for signing production capacity has been raised, and capital pressure has been transmitted to power battery manufacturers and material manufacturers.
In the next few years, cathode material manufacturers will still face pressure from rapid expansion of production capacity, low capital turnover and long account period. GGII predicts that the Chinese cathode material market will have the following development characteristics in 2020:
1) The market concentration of subdivided materials companies will be further improved, and companies with product quality advantages and capacity effects will gradually concentrate on the head companies;
2) The head enterprises further strengthen the supply chain layout of international mainstream battery customers. Enterprises entering the core supply chain of enterprises such as CATL, LG, BYD, Panasonic, etc. are gradually concentrated to a few powerful enterprises;
3) The cost advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries will continue. Driven by the market of power batteries and energy storage batteries and the acceleration of the application of new technologies and new processes, the shipment of lithium iron phosphate materials will account for more than 25%;
4) Ternary cathode materials still account for the largest market share in the cathode material market. With the increase in the market size of power batteries and small power batteries, the market share of ternary materials will exceed 50%;
5) Core cathode material companies will further increase their layout and optimization reforms in technology, patents, customer resources, management, etc., to enhance their core competitiveness;
6) The head enterprises will further strengthen their upstream and downstream industry chain cooperation layout to ensure their own raw material supply and product sales.
In addition, the industrialization of module-less battery technology will have a huge impact on the lithium iron phosphate material market. Previously limited to low energy density, the application market of lithium iron phosphate material has been limited to the field of commercial vehicles and a small number of passenger vehicles.
As the industry continues to improve the performance of lithium iron phosphate materials and the application of CTP and other moduleless technologies, the future application of lithium iron phosphate materials will gradually expand.
Mass production of BYD Han series models is imminent in 2020, and the market share of lithium iron phosphate materials in the passenger car market is expected to increase significantly.
