Faced with increasingly strict emission standards, the trend of heavy-duty electrification at home and abroad is “dark tides”.
Recently, during the Frankfurt Motor Show, Ningde era signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Daimlerka Bus Company. The Ningde era will supply batteries for Daimler electric series trucks in large quantities in 2021.
Hi-Tech Lithium Electric noted that the Daimlerka bus had already produced the first two eCascadia all-electric semi-trailers in August and delivered them to customers. The large-scale official production is expected to be in 2021, and the Ningde era will be listed as an important battery supplier partner.
As the most competing opponent of Daimler, Musk also said on Twitter recently that Tesla's electric truck Semi will be launched in November this year. According to previous news, the model has a maximum traction load of 80,000 pounds (about 36 tons) and a battery life of 300 miles (about 482 kilometers).
The time goes back to the end of 2017-2018. In addition to Tesla and Daimler, giants including Volvo, Mann, Scania and DAF have also released their own pure electric heavy trucks. Subsequently, DAF, Mann, Daimler began to deliver the first delivery.
Domestically, the pure electric heavy truck market seems to have already “fired”. In early September, Kaiwo Group delivered the first batch of 10 pure electric heavy-duty trucks for the Lishui District. In July, BAIC rushed to deliver the first 18 pure electric heavy trucks to Angang Group. In June, Xuzhou Xugong delivered 100 pure electric intelligent environmental protection heavy truck muck trucks.
High-tech lithium battery was informed, including BYD, China National Heavy Duty Truck, FAW Jiefang, Dongfeng, Kaiwo Group, Dayun Automobile, Gaomai New Energy, Anhui Hualing, Zoomlion, Shaanxi Automobile, Xuzhou Xugong, Hubei Sanhuan, AVIC Long-term, Jiangling Heavy Duty Truck, Beiben Heavy Duty Truck and other well-known domestic commercial vehicle companies have already laid out pure electric heavy trucks in advance.
GGII analysis believes that under the multiple factors of the implementation of the National Six Standards, the Blue Sky Three-Year Plan, and the road rights/licenses, special vehicles will enter the positive development channel in 2020, especially in ports, municipalities, and short-term transportation of minerals. Under the scenario, the new energy medium card will further increase the market size in this segment.
Pure electric heavy truck market prospects
At the 2019 China Electric Vehicle Centennial Forum, BYD Chairman and President Wang Chuanfu said that 15,000 diesel trucks in Shenzhen should be fully electrified, leading the transformation of pure electric heavy truck industry; Beijing BYD pure electric sanitation trucks have also reached 2,000 vehicles. The scale is the first in the world.
Wang Chuanfu’s point of view is that success stories in various cities and fields indicate that electric trucks now have the technical capabilities and market base to replace fuel trucks, and 2025 is the time to fully motorize trucks.
At present, the market application scenarios of domestic pure electric heavy trucks are concentrated in two major areas: one is the venue vehicles, such as ports and terminals, warehouses, railway stations, airports and construction sites; the second is to operate on fixed lines, such as short distance intercity /Tractors and special vehicles in the fields of urban transportation and sanitation.
From the industry data, the domestic pure electric heavy truck market in 2018 is about 700 million yuan, and the market penetration rate is less than 5%.
The main reason is that, on the one hand, subject to the heavy-duty vehicle body, the excessively assembled battery will impose a burden on the vehicle itself, and the cruising range of the whole vehicle is difficult to improve; on the other hand, the heavy-duty truck has a large power, and the large battery pack will lead to pure The cost of electric heavy trucks is too high.
The industry believes that the key to solving pure electric heavy trucks is how to balance the contradiction between the cruising range, the selling price and the cargo load. With the improvement of battery technology and the reduction of unit cost of batteries, with the help of market demand, the penetration rate of pure electric heavy trucks in the above lines is expected to reach about 10% in 2019.
Internationally, pure electric heavy trucks have also entered the delivery process. At the end of 2018, Dutch truck manufacturer DAF delivered the first CF electric truck to Dutch supermarket chain giant Jumbo; German commercial vehicle manufacturer Mann delivered its eTGM electric truck to Porsche; Daimler delivered the first Electric truck Freightlinere M2 and two eCascadia all-electric semi-trailers.
Under the leadership of giants such as Tesla and Daimler, it is expected that in 2021, pure electric heavy trucks will usher in large-scale delivery applications in the international market.
Lithium battery enterprise opportunity geometry
The domestic and international pure electric heavy truck market has already started, and the power battery enterprises that can realize the pure electric heavy truck type are expected to usher in the huge blue ocean market prospect.
High-tech lithium battery learned that pure electric heavy-duty trucks are equipped with power batteries between 170-400KWh according to different application scenarios. Due to the large number of battery packs, the consistency requirements of groups are higher, the difficulty is greater, and the requirements for safety control are even more demanding. Strict, pure electric heavy trucks have certain thresholds for matching batteries.
Taking the pure electric dump truck as an example, considering the transportation environment and the use environment of the field application are more severe and complicated, it is more difficult to comprehensively solve the performances such as cruising range, climbing ability, wading depth and water resistance.
From the current domestic announcement data, the battery companies that can be equipped with pure electric heavy trucks include Ningde era, BYD, Nanjing Chuangyuan, Lishen, Yiwei Lithium, Tafel. As far as the current supporting system is concerned, the competitive landscape of the market has not yet formed.
It should be noted that the current national promotion of electric heavy trucks is weak. The maximum subsidy limit for state subsidies this year has dropped to 55,000 yuan (100,000 yuan in 2018), mainly due to the active promotion of new energy trucks and vehicle manufacturing enterprises and operations. . This also means that the pure electric heavy truck market is mainly driven by market demand.
A power battery company said that electric heavy trucks do not have so much subsidies, mainly relying on technological progress to promote their development. Without high subsidies, heavy truck manufacturers and power battery companies can calm down and study technology and experience.
On the whole, at the technical level as well as the cost level, pure electric heavy trucks have initially possessed the strength to compete with traditional heavy trucks. The rapid trend of the market and the binding of market customers will further divide the share pattern of lithium battery enterprises in the pure electric heavy truck market.
