Ships are an important means of water transportation, and their classification can be divided into various types according to different navigation areas, navigation conditions, propulsion methods, power devices, shipbuilding materials and uses. According to the existing power plant classification, existing ships can be classified into steam engine ships, internal combustion engine ships, steam turbine ships, electric ships and nuclear power ships. At present, electric ships are mainly used in civilian fields, focusing on inland lakes, inland rivers and offshore ports. From the perspective of application ship types, they can be divided into passenger and passenger ferries, passenger ships, port tugs, port ships and offshore ships; from the application tonnage, they can be divided into Below 500 tons, 500-2000 tons, 2000-5000 tons, above 5000 tons, etc.
Electric ships have the advantages of environmental protection, zero pollution, safety and low cost of use. GGII estimates that the operating cost of a ship per 100 kilometers is 4,100 yuan for diesel-powered ships, 3,700 yuan for LNG-fueled ships, and 2,800 yuan for electric ships. The operating cost of electric ships is significantly lower than that of diesel and LNG fuel ships. At the same time, due to its simple structure, few rotating parts, and reliable work, the maintenance cost is extremely low, and the electric ship is very in line with the current trend of developing green ships.
According to the statistical yearbook data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the number of civilian motor vessels in 2017 was 131,700, and the total number of motor vessels in 2018 was 125,700, a year-on-year decrease of 4.56%. According to the ship registration data of China Classification Society (CCS), the net tonnage of domestic lake ships in 2017 was 219 million tons, and the net tonnage of lake ships in 2018 was 195 million tons. Affected by the decline in the total number of civilian motorized ships, the number of ships in Neihu showed A slight downward trend.
At present, it is more difficult to replace lithium batteries in medium and large ships over 5,000 tons, and a small amount of hybrid type will be the main one. The proportion of lithium batteries in new ships and new ships will increase year by year. GGII predicts that if the 50% electrification ratio of the total number of ships in Neihu is calculated, the total tonnage of the electric ship market in 2018 will reach 98 million tons. According to the current range of marine lithium battery power, it is 1.2-1.35KWh / ton. According to the calculation of the ship's unit power of 1.3KWh, the theoretical demand of the lithium-ion battery market for electric ships will reach 127GWh in 2018. In fact, the lithium battery supporting ship can only be used after being certified by the classification society's lithium battery product technical standards as a power source. As of June 2019, there are 11 domestic marine lithium ion battery companies certified by the classification society and certified electric There are 25 core products, and the number of types of batteries and the number of corresponding companies are still small.
GGII data research shows that in 2018, the total output value of the electric ship lithium battery market was 44 million, the actual ship electrification rate was 0.016%, and the market share was still very small, but in the future, with the trend of national policies toward the ship field and the implementation of the "Belt and Road" , Ship electrification is expected to accelerate development.
In the future, the total number and the tonnage of civilian motor ships will show a downward trend, and the corresponding gross tonnage of ships in Neijiang and Neihu will also show a downward trend, but the weight per unit tonnage of ships will slightly increase (when the total number of people or cargo remains unchanged) ); In the future, scenic cruise ships and passenger ships and ferries under 2,000 tons will be electrified first. At present, most passenger ships and ferries in Xinjiang and Wuhan are purely electrified. In the future, there will be more in scenic areas such as the Central Region and the Yangtze River Delta. The pure electric motorized ship is running; at present, Xingying Technology and Fengfan are currently conducting relevant tests for marine lithium batteries. According to the verification cycle of 1.5 to 2 years, more companies will enter the marine battery market in two years. Will grow further.
In the next 7 years, according to the average annual decrease of 4.9% in the total number of civilian ships, the average net weight per unit tonnage is 0.178 million tons per vessel, and the total tonnage of Neihu ships accounts for an average of 92% of the total tonnage of civil motor ships. In 2019, 2022 and 2025, the penetration rate of lithium ionization of electric ships is calculated according to the electrification rates of 0.035%, 0.55%, and 18.5%. By 2025, the lithium battery market for electric ships will reach 35.41GWh. The development of the electric ship market as a whole presents two stages. The growth rate is slow in 2018-2021, and the growth rate is accelerated in 2022-2025. If the penetration rate of lithium electrification in the lithium battery market for electric ships reaches 50%, it will drive the scale of the lithium battery market above 90GWh.
The number and tonnage of China's civil motor ships from 2014 to 2019
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Data source: National Bureau of Statistics, China Classification Society, High-Tech Industry Research Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), August 2019
2016-2019 Lithium Battery Market Demand for Electric Ships (GWh)
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Source: Gaogong Industry Research Lithium Battery Research Institute (GGII), August 2019
Current electric marine lithium batteries use lithium iron phosphate-based power batteries and need to be used after being qualified by the classification society. Lithium iron phosphate battery has good safety, long cycle performance, good high temperature stability and low cost. Electric ships need to carry a larger number of batteries and require batteries to have a high discharge rate in a short period of time, which will promote the battery's heat generation to a certain extent. The high temperature, cycle and cost of the battery are particularly important. Compared with lead-acid batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have more advantages in terms of energy density and volume.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries are currently used in new energy buses and energy storage, and the price is 0.8-1 yuan / Wh. At this stage, lithium iron phosphate batteries used in electric ships will face more technical verification and require more strict The standard price of the product is higher than that in the field of new energy vehicles, and the price is 1.1-1.3 yuan / Wh. With the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries used in electric ships in the future, the price of products will show a downward trend.
The future trend of lithium-ionization of ships will mainly focus on the following areas: 1) ferry boats and sightseeing ships along coastal cities; 2) inland river cargo ships; 3) port tugboat market; 4) some large and medium-sized ships use lithium batteries to replace lead acid, thereby promoting the marine use of lithium batteries Accelerated. However, the industry is still facing some difficulties and bottlenecks, mainly including: 1) the implementation of IP67 safety standards and the development of high-rate batteries; 2) the standardization of marine battery manufacturing and testing systems still needs to be improved; 3) Neihu and Neijiang small ship market Insufficient standardization and imperfect operating system.
