The global market has quietly set off a "hot wind" of HEV.
In June of this year, Nissan announced that it would cooperate with Xinwangda to develop the next generation of Nissan's e-POWER battery for electric vehicles to ensure the supply of HEV batteries for e-POWER domestic models. e-power is an HEV power system with only series mode, and the battery pack is about 1.5kwh.
In early August, Toyota confirmed a new domestic hybrid system to pave the way for its large-scale expansion of the HEV market in China.
Japanese HEV car companies represented by Toyota and Nissan are accelerating their deployment in the Chinese market. The corresponding battery suppliers PEVE and GS Yuasa are also focusing on starting a new round of HEV lithium battery expansion. An obvious trend is that the Chinese HEV market is gradually heating up.
According to the degree of hybridization, HEV is usually divided into micro mixing (start and stop only), light hybrid (start and stop + feedback mechanism), medium hybrid (start and stop + feedback mechanism + electric assist), full hybrid (start and stop + feedback mechanism + electric assist +Pure electric drive). In this article, HEV mainly discusses medium mixing + full mixing.
The HEV market is not a flash in the pan. In 2019, global sales of HEV models exceeded 3 million, and market demand is expected to exceed 10 million in 2025. The tangible market space has attracted a group of auto companies and battery companies.
The HEV market is dominated by Japanese brands from two fields and one production. At the same time, international car companies such as GM, Hyundai-Kia, Ford and other international car companies are accelerating the layout and market planning of HEV models, and independent brands such as Geely and Dongfeng are also squeezing into the track.
In the Chinese market, HEV models do not enjoy the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. They are completely driven by the market. The driving factors are mainly as follows:
First, the implementation of a series of policies such as passenger vehicle fuel consumption limits, National VI standards and double points has forced domestic and foreign OEMs to develop energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies. It is unrealistic for traditional fuel vehicles to fully switch to new energy routes in the short term. HEV has become an important transition plan. HEV fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is only 4.1L, and equivalent fuel vehicles exceed 5.5L.
Second, unlike the new energy vehicle market with fierce competition and rapid price changes, the HEV market has higher technical barriers, but the competition is relatively weak, and prices are falling steadily, providing new ideas and new opportunities for Dongfeng Liuqi and other independent brand car companies .
It is foreseeable that, driven by environmental protection pressure and carbon emissions, HEV models are expected to usher in a round of growth, which will stimulate the corresponding demand for power batteries.
Battery market space is nearly 60 billion yuan
In 2019, global sales of HEVs were approximately 3.07 million, an increase of 18% year-on-year. Future demand growth will mainly come from the European and Chinese markets. It is estimated that in 2020, the sales of HEV in Europe will reach 1.28 million, and that in China will be 350,000. By 2025, the global sales of HEV models will exceed 10.6 million, with a compound annual growth rate of 25%.
Driven by market demand, mainstream auto companies at home and abroad are attracted to join the game. For example, Toyota concentrated on launching three main HEV models in the European market in 2019. In the first three quarters of last year, HEV sales were 400,000 units, accounting for nearly 50% of total European sales. It is expected that HEV sales will account for more than 80% in 2025.
In terms of battery selection, HEV models were previously mainly supplied by Ni-MH batteries. In recent years, battery prices have dropped significantly, and lithium batteries with higher energy density, smaller volume, and lighter weight have become the mainstream solution. The development of HEV models will also drive a wave of demand for lithium batteries.
Relevant data shows that based on the value of 9,800 yuan per vehicle supplied to Toyota, assuming an annual decrease of 8%, it is estimated that the global HEV battery market space will be about 30 billion yuan in 2020, and the market space will be close to 60 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of about 15%. .
Keeping up with market demand, HEV battery suppliers such as GS Yuasa, PEVE, and Xinwanda have started a new round of expansion cycle, which has doubled the existing capacity. For example, PEVE has an existing production capacity of nearly 2 million units/year of Ni-MH capacity, and an additional 400,000 units/year of lithium battery capacity.
Opportunities for Chinese power battery companies
Different from high-capacity batteries for electric vehicles, HEV requires high-rate batteries and 30C continuous discharge, so the structural design and material requirements of power batteries are higher. And put forward higher requirements for battery cycle life, to reach more than 10,000 times, so the technical threshold is higher.
Prior to this, the selection of battery suppliers for Japanese auto companies such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan was relatively concentrated, focusing on a few such as Panasonic, GS Yuasa, and PEVE. In recent years, battery suppliers from OEMs have chosen to gradually liberalize, such as Xinwangda entering the supply system of Nissan and Renault.
China's HEV does not enjoy the new energy subsidy policy, which is mainly driven by market demand. The market is concentrated in the two major Japanese brands Toyota and Honda, with a market share of more than half. Nissan is moving fast or slow in the Chinese market, but it is coming aggressively.
Nissan plans to launch 7 e-power models in China from 2020 to 2023. It is estimated that in 2022, the sales of electrified models will be close to 400,000, and more than 200,000 will be e-power models. The e-power battery developed by Xinwangda and Nissan is expected to be available in 2021.
The technical threshold for HEV batteries is relatively high. Currently, only a few power battery companies such as CATL, PEVE, Blue Energy (GS Yuasa), Xinwangda, LG, and Samsung SDI are involved.
It is foreseeable that with the increasing volume of HEV models worldwide, battery companies represented by CATL will usher in new market opportunities in the HEV segment.
